One of the tenets of in-market forecasting is that there is knowledge to be gained from a review of the historical data. By examining history we gained insights into product performance and product response to various external (ex-trend) events. What can we learn from the same retrospective analysis of forecasting?

In the early 1990s pressures on the pharmaceutical industry began to increase. Contraction in economies, pressure on pharmaceutical prices, increasing competitive pressure, and loss of marketing exclusivity on major products drove the need for more accurate planning and forecasting. Coming from a history of low need for forecasting, the industry struggled to develop the ‘science’ of forecasting. Disappointment resulted from the industry’s inexperience in forecasting.

The late 1990s and the beginning of the new century saw a growth in the application and sophistication of forecasting. In response to commercial pressure on the industry, strategic planning for the future took on greater importance and forecasting became a major contributor to the strategic planning function. In response to this need, the tools and methods available to the forecaster became more sophisticated and the ability to model various strategic options became viable.

In this current decade (2010–19) we are seeing an explosion is the amount of data available to the pharmaceutical forecaster. These data range from anonymous patient-level data to more sophisticated datasets that track clinical trials and product development. In those countries where data have been scarce, but potential high we are seeing the emergence of nascent, disparate datasets. As information technology advances, data for these countries – such as China, India, and Russia – will become more readily available, enabling application of standards forecasting models in these emerging markets.